Thursday, June 16, 2016

FOMC Projections

Here is a cool data sheet put together by the Fed. It details their projections for GDP growth, unemployment, PCE inflation, and where they think rates should be in the future. The full release can be seen here.

VariableMedian1Central tendency2Range3
201620172018Longer run201620172018Longer run201620172018Longer run
Change in real GDP2.02.02.02.01.9 - 2.01.9 - 2.21.8 - 2.11.8 - 2.01.8 - 2.21.6 - 2.41.5 - 2.21.6 - 2.4
March projection2.22.12.02.02.1 - 2.32.0 - 2.31.8 - 2.11.8 - 2.11.9 - 2.51.7 - 2.31.8 - 2.31.8 - 2.4
Unemployment rate4.74.64.64.84.6 - 4.84.5 - 4.74.4 - 4.84.7 - 5.04.5 - 4.94.3 - 4.84.3 - 5.04.6 - 5.0
March projection4.74.64.54.84.6 - 4.84.5 - 4.74.5 - 5.04.7 - 5.04.5 - 4.94.3 - 4.94.3 - 5.04.7 - 5.8
PCE inflation1.41.92.02.01.3 - 1.71.7 - 2.01.9 - 2.02.01.3 - 2.01.6 - 2.01.8 - 2.12.0
March projection1.21.92.02.01.0 - 1.61.7 - 2.01.9 - 2.02.01.0 - 1.61.6 - 2.01.8 - 2.02.0
Core PCE inflation41.71.92.01.6 - 1.81.7 - 2.01.9 - 2.01.3 - 2.01.6 - 2.01.8 - 2.1
March projection1.61.82.01.4 - 1.71.7 - 2.01.9 - 2.01.4 - 2.11.6 - 2.01.8 - 2.0
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate0.91.62.43.00.6 - 0.91.4 - 1.92.1 - 2.93.0 - 3.30.6 - 1.40.6 - 2.40.6 - 3.42.8 - 3.8
March projection0.91.93.03.30.9 - 1.41.6 - 2.42.5 - 3.33.0 - 3.50.6 - 1.41.6 - 2.82.1 - 3.93.0 - 4.0

Change in real GDP
Percent
20112012201320142015201620172018Longer run
Actual1.71.32.52.52.0----
Upper End of Range-----2.22.42.22.4
Upper End of Central Tendency-----2.02.22.12.0
Median-----2.02.02.02.0
Lower End of Central Tendency-----1.91.91.81.8
Lower End of Range-----1.81.61.51.6
Unemployment rate
Percent
20112012201320142015201620172018Longer run
Actual8.77.87.05.75.0----
Upper End of Range-----4.94.85.05.0
Upper End of Central Tendency-----4.84.74.85.0
Median-----4.74.64.64.8
Lower End of Central Tendency-----4.64.54.44.7
Lower End of Range-----4.54.34.34.6
PCE inflation
Percent
20112012201320142015201620172018Longer run
Actual2.71.81.21.10.5----
Upper End of Range-----2.02.02.12.0
Upper End of Central Tendency-----1.72.02.02.0
Median-----1.41.92.02.0
Lower End of Central Tendency-----1.31.71.92.0
Lower End of Range-----1.31.61.82.0

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