Wednesday, November 9, 2016

The Market Reacts to Bad Election Polls

OK so it seems people with rational minds can see one thing. The POLLS WERE ALL WRONG!  It seems that judging by the polls it caught a lot of market participants off guard which initially sent S&P futures on a 125 point swing, or a bigger than 5% move!!! As of now the markets have worked their way into positive territory, but this week is likely to still be full of ups and downs. Just check out my recent article on the S&P 500 and it's historical reactions to election day.

Anyone with basic knowledge of statistics knows that to be off this much means one of a few things:

1. You took bad data on purpose, or you had bad sampling info.

2. Your confidence level was set to low.

3. Your model was simply horrible and you're bad at math and should be fired.

Some of these polls look like they'll even end up outside of their own margins of error.

Of course this article will involve some investing stuff cause I hate just talking about politics alone. Besides if you're here you probably are interested in investing and making money which is awesome! If you want more info head to That's where all the best info is. Just FYI this is strictly the blog. Got it? Great.

So what did the polls look like before hand? Well fortunately I kept a few snapshots of them, and some links. I haven't checked but I wouldn't be surprised if some of them don't work anymore as the sites are updated. Either way here are the screen shots and links I copied on 10/23/2016

Yahoo - They regurgitated ABC's poll showing a double digit lead by Clinton! No wonder why Yahoo(YHOO) is selling itself. What a defunct business. Don't invest in them or Verizon(VZ) which is buying the company. Did you hear me now?

Investors Business Daily - Oddly the only one showing a Trump victory. Also their site is great for getting market recaps with their daily videos. Of course they don't have the MAD Economic Review which I publish weekly, and is loaded with tons of awesome economic and market information. It's a must read! Just wait til I have my own video crew!

CNN - Showed Clinton easily winning. No I don't use CNN for anything if you are wondering. But here is the screen shot.

USA Today - Another one showing Clinton about to Trump the Trump.  I don't read USA today either unless I'm staying in a hotel and they have it for free. Otherwise it's a useless newspaper and organization. Wow looking back I was up kind of late - 10:50pm, and my battery was getting low. God I love my country and clients!

After it's all said and done the media makes a huge impression on us all. What it looks like to me is it's not a good one anymore.  They caught so many people off guard with bad information, whether it was intentional or not.  That makes it much harder for the markets to discern what direction to head in the short term.  Thus creating higher amounts of volatility around important events.  Enough is Enough!

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